The European Center for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) released its skills forecast with quantitative projections up to 2030, focusing on the future trends in employment by sector of economic activity and occupational group.

The projections also include future trends on the level of education of the population and the labor force. CEDEFOP’s forecasts use harmonized international data and a common methodological approach in order to offer cross-country comparisons. The forecasts and the methodologies applied are also validated by a group of national experts.

According to CEDEFOP’s skills forecast, Europe’s labor force is projected to remain at a similar level in the period up to 2030 while moderate job growth will likely curb unemployment. The forecast also shows that technological change may accelerate known employment trends, such as the shift to services, and may also increase polarisation in job growth, with fast growth projected for high-skill occupations and moderate growth for certain lower-skill jobs. Employment levels in medium-skill occupations will experience a hollowing out, with occupations such as skilled manual workers and clerks, likely to decline or stay the same, as automation and offshoring take their toll. In that context, a rethink of traditional vocational education and training is needed.

“The most critical challenge we will have to address in the decade to come is job polarisation, which reduces the amount of good and well-paid jobs. Polarisation means widening inequalities between those who have access to good-quality and skills-intensive work and those who end up being low-paid employees in inferior jobs” said Tatjana Babrauskiene, Chair of CEDEFOP Governing Board.

To know more on CEDEFOP’s skills forecast, please check out the news on their website.